The U.S. relies heavily on Mexico for fresh produce, importing 60% of its fresh fruit and 40% of its fresh vegetables, with Mexico as the largest supplier. Key imports include tomatoes, avocados, raspberries, bell peppers, and strawberries, which comprised 69% of U.S. vegetable imports and 51% of fresh fruit imports in 2022, according to the USDA. Between 2000 and 2021, the value of these exports quadrupled. Beer, including popular brands like Corona and Modelo, is also a major import, meaning U.S. consumers could face higher prices if President-elect Donald Trump implements a proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports.
Mexico’s dominance in horticultural exports stems from lower labor costs, about one-fifth of U.S. rates, and year-round growing conditions, ensuring fresher produce. However, economists warn that U.S. importers, not foreign suppliers, would likely absorb tariff costs, passing them onto consumers and fueling inflation. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate Trump’s tariff plans, which also include Canadian and Chinese imports, could raise inflation by nearly 1%.
Despite Trump’s tariffs being viewed by some as a negotiation tactic, retailers like Walmart are preparing for potential price hikes. “We never want to raise prices,” said Walmart CFO John David Rainey. “But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers.” Economists caution that such tariffs could significantly impact American households and reignite inflation concerns.
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