India is making strategic moves to stay in Donald Trump’s good graces ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House. The country has already lowered tariffs on U.S. goods and accepted deported immigrants. However, migration—not trade—remains the biggest challenge in bilateral relations.
India’s $35 billion trade surplus with the U.S. is manageable. New Delhi recently slashed duties on American imports, including Harley Davidson motorcycles and Apple components. It could also increase purchases of U.S. oil and weapons. But migration is trickier. India was the third-largest source of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. in 2022, and Trump has vowed mass deportations. Meanwhile, India dominates the H-1B visa program, with 72% of approvals going to its skilled workers. While the program benefits both nations, it faces growing backlash from Trump’s supporters.
A potential deal could see India quietly accepting deported citizens in exchange for faster H-1B visa processing. However, a repeat of recent mass deportation flights would be politically embarrassing, exposing India’s job crisis.
Modi also faces pressure over India’s top business tycoons. Gautam Adani’s conglomerate is under U.S. fraud investigations, while Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance benefits from cheap Russian oil—something Washington could restrict. The U.S. may also penalize India’s push for trade in non-dollar currencies.
With high stakes, Modi’s visit will be a critical test of diplomacy.
Context: Trump has invited Modi to the White House from Feb. 12-14. India recently cut tariffs on motorcycles and reduced average duties to 11% from 13%.
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